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USD Drops Alongside Fed Pricing Post-ISM

MARKET INSIGHT
  • Greenback weakness pervades further through the London close, with EUR/USD, GBP/USD topping the earlier session highs. Move coincides with a break back into the green and (just) above last Friday highs in the e-mini S&P.
  • This puts equities at the best levels since early June, with yields dropping below 2.60% for the first time since early April.
  • STIR futures continue to reassess the Fed's hiking chances, with the Sep decision pricing now seeing a ~30% chance of a 75bps rate rise, a pullback of over 25bps in implied rate hikes since the cycle high in policy pricing in mid-July
  • Soft ISM and particularly large drop in prices paid sub-component the latest driver for this move
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