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FOREX: USD Holds APAC Demand, CAD Left Isolated

FOREX
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  • The greenback trades stronger headed into the NY crossover, holding the bulk of a phase of dollar demand through the Asia-Pac session - although European trade so far has been considerably more subdued. EURUSD highs over the past two sessions at 1.0525 and 1.0528 have fallen just shy of key resistance, building the significance of 1.0533, the Jan 27 high and an important reversal trigger.
  • In contrast with the general stability in G10 FX through the open, USD/CAD remains well within range of the overnight highs, keeping the pair on track to post four consecutive sessions of gains and five consecutive sessions of higher lows.
  • The significantly calmer MXN market shows it's Canada that markets see as the risk here - with Sheinbaum's frequent public commentary and several meetings between ministers clearly soothing any tensions and showing through in currency risk premia. Resistance to watch remains 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A move above this hurdle would highlight an early reversal signal and would be a key consideration on prolonged uncertainty.
  • US New Home Sales data is the scheduled data highlight Wednesday, with appearances from Fed's Barkin & Bostic and BoE's Dhingra - ahead of a slew of appearances for the RBA, as Hauser, Jones and McPhee all testify in front of lawmakers. The G20 finance ministers meeting is set to kick off in South Africa, at which Trump's approach to both global military security and global trade is the key focus. Any signs of discord here are unlikely to be received well by the White House - meaning any communique will draw market attention.
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  • The greenback trades stronger headed into the NY crossover, holding the bulk of a phase of dollar demand through the Asia-Pac session - although European trade so far has been considerably more subdued. EURUSD highs over the past two sessions at 1.0525 and 1.0528 have fallen just shy of key resistance, building the significance of 1.0533, the Jan 27 high and an important reversal trigger.
  • In contrast with the general stability in G10 FX through the open, USD/CAD remains well within range of the overnight highs, keeping the pair on track to post four consecutive sessions of gains and five consecutive sessions of higher lows.
  • The significantly calmer MXN market shows it's Canada that markets see as the risk here - with Sheinbaum's frequent public commentary and several meetings between ministers clearly soothing any tensions and showing through in currency risk premia. Resistance to watch remains 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A move above this hurdle would highlight an early reversal signal and would be a key consideration on prolonged uncertainty.
  • US New Home Sales data is the scheduled data highlight Wednesday, with appearances from Fed's Barkin & Bostic and BoE's Dhingra - ahead of a slew of appearances for the RBA, as Hauser, Jones and McPhee all testify in front of lawmakers. The G20 finance ministers meeting is set to kick off in South Africa, at which Trump's approach to both global military security and global trade is the key focus. Any signs of discord here are unlikely to be received well by the White House - meaning any communique will draw market attention.