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USD/IDR Back Above 15050, Q4 GDP On Tap Today

IDR

Spot USD/IDR has gaped higher, up a little over 1% to 15050/55. This puts the pair back to mid-Jan levels. Note the 20-day EMA comes in just above 15100, while the 200-day is around the 15130 level. On the downside, recent lows come in closer to 14830. The 1-month NDF is back around 15075/80, with some resistance ahead of 15100, although an earlier move to 15050 saw some USD demand emerge.

  • Coming up later is Q4 GDP, the market expects y/y growth to slow to 4.92% from 5.72%. Q/Q growth is expected at 0.35% from 1.81%. For 2022 as a whole growth is forecast at 5.30% (3.69% was recorded for 2021).
  • Elsewhere, cross asset signals have generally moved against IDR. Local equities are down a touch, the JCI last around 6890, still tracking within recent ranges. 5yr CDS is up from recent lows.
  • The spike in US real yields through Friday's session, post the payrolls report, is also weighing.
  • Foreign holdings of local bonds have stabilized somewhat through end Jan/early Feb, last around 811.6 trillion IDR (start of Feb). We were around 762 trillion IDR at the start of the year.
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