USD/IDR Back Below 15000, As Offshore Bond Flows Return

Spot USD/IDR gapped lower in the first part of trade, getting under 14960. We sit slightly higher now at 14975/80, still around 0.50% firmer in IDR terms for the session. This is fresh lows in the pair back to early Feb. YTD lows come in at 14837. We are back sub all key EMAs and MAs, as IDR continues to ride the improved risk tone in global markets.

• 5yr CDS is back sub 100bps (we were around 120bps in terms of recent highs). Crude palm oil prices sit around recent highs, last at MYR4065, which is close to the 200-day MA (MYR4075).
• Offshore holdings of local bonds have also risen. This week has seen just over $500mn in fresh inflows so far. In level terms, foreign holdings of local bonds are close to recent early Feb highs (811.71 trillion IDR, versus 816.20 on Feb 7).
• Local equities are down today (JCI off by 0.15%) but are still firmer for the week. Offshore inflows into local equities are +$173.1mn for the week so far.
• The local data calendar is quiet until next Monday, when the Mar PMI and CPI prints are due.
• Note we will hear from BI Governor Warjiyo and Finance Minister Indrawati at 4pm Jakarta time later today after the ASEAN finance ministers and central bank governors meeting.