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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
IDR
USD/IDR has fallen to fresh YTD lows, despite cross asset headwinds. The pair got to a low of 14575 but is now back just above 14600, still ~0.60% firmer in IDR terms versus yesterday's close. Broad USD/Asia losses are helping the IDR rally. From a technical standpoint, not much appears in the way of a move to the low 14400 regions (lows from June last year), if we can sustain a break of 14600.
- Cross asset headwinds are evident from the weaker global equity market backdrop, with US banking concerns still front and center. The chart below overlays USD/IDR versus global equities (note equities are inverted on the chart). IDR is seeing modest outperformance, although we have seen such episodes in the past.
- Indonesian 5yr CDS is also drifting higher, last back above 100bps. While weaker commodity prices won't be helping at the margins either.
- The prospect of a potential Fed pause though is outweighing these headwinds for now though.
- Note Q1 GDP prints tomorrow which is expected to contract in q/q terms, but y/y growth is expected to hold steady close to 5% y/y.
Fig 1: IDR Outperforming Weaker Global Equities (Albeit Modestly)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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