USD/IDR Holding Close To Recent Highs, But Market Wary Of Intervention Risks

USD/IDR sits modestly off highs from the end of last week. Last near 15925, after getting to 15950 late in Friday trade. Earlier lows today were just under 15910, but had little follow through. This leaves us within recent ranges, as the market remains wary of intervention risks around 15960 and likely closer to 16000.

• This week we have CPI figures for October out on Wednesday. Little change is seen relative to September data in terms of these prints (core near 2%y/y, headline 2.6%).
• Events outside Indonesia may dictate currency trends more forcefully, with markets watch Mideast developments closely. We ended last week with weaker sentiment, but the start of this week has had a more positive start to it in terms of US equity futures.
• Indonesia's 5yr CDS is largely tracking sideways, last near 100.8bps. Palm oil prices are also within recent ranges. Yields spread with the US are away from recent lows on a 10yr basis, last near +236bps (recent lows sub +200bps)
• Portfolio flows remain negative for equities, last week -$195.8mn, likewise for bonds, although Thursday saw positive inflow momentum.