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USD/IDR Rebounding Into Month End, BI May Be On Extended Pause

IDR

The rupiah is underperforming in the first part of Thursday trade. USD/IDR is +0.60% higher, last tracking near 15490. This leaves it as comfortably the worst performer in EM Asia FX for the session so far.

  • US yields have stabilized somewhat, but are only a touch above recent lows. Today's move high in USD/IDR is also at odds with Wednesday weakness in US real yields. Month end could be seeing USD buying flows coming through.
  • Elsewhere in the cross asset space, local equities are modestly firmer (+0.40%), while 5yr CDS is steady at +75bps. Palm oil prices are also steady, last near 3751MYR.
  • BI noted at its annual meeting late yesterday that it may be in an extended pause phase, as rates stay high to curb inflation risks (see this BBG link).
  • For USD/IDR we are back above the 100-day EMA (15461), while the 20 and 50-day rest higher in the 15560/70 region.
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