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USD Index Starts The Week On A Soft Note, JPY A Beneficiary Of Tsy Rally

FOREX
  • After a mid-session lift, the USD index has returned to moderate weakness seen earlier on to start the week on a soft note. It shock off softer than expected second tier US data but a further slide in Treasury yields with rare double Treasury auctions out of the way has added a headwind for the greenback.
  • The Japanese Yen is stronger with USDJPY having extended its session low to 148.55, back below the 149 handle. The bullish price pattern on Nov 21 - a dragonfly doji candle - signals a potential reversal and the end of the recent corrective move down. If correct, it suggests scope for a rally that would expose key resistance at 151.95, the Oct 21 2022 high. For bears, a break of 147.15, the Nov 21 low, would cancel the reversal pattern and instead open 146.38, trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low.
  • AUD has consolidated last week's rally, with the pair benefiting from the first close above the 200-dma since July (0.6584). Resultingly, AUD/USD has touched the best level since Aug10 at 0.6614 on Monday, closely matching touted resistance at the Oct 8 high, although despite heading to the APAC crossover on a strong note can’t quite get back to that level. Price action reinforces the bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term.
  • Australia retail sales data and the participation of RBA Governor Bullock in a panel discussion highlight Tuesday's APAC docket. US consumer confidence and Richmond manufacturing will precede a slew of Fed speakers are scheduled during the US session.
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