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FOREX: USD Index Steady, Yen Down Modestly Against Some Commodity FX

FOREX
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Early G10 FX trends are seeing some modest yen weakness against higher beta plays. The BBDXY USD index was last little changed, holding above 1319.1. 

  • Yen was an outperformer through Friday's session, so may be seeing some modest retracement in early Monday dealings. USD/JPY was last around 157.90, still well below post NFP highs from Friday at 158.87. Japan markets are out today, so liquidity will be lighter from that standpoint.
  • AUD and NZD are a touch higher. Both currencies are up around 0.10% versus the USD. AUD/USD was in the 0.6150/55 region, NZD at 0.5560/65. We have had data outcomes in both economies but these second tier prints haven't shifted FX sentiment.  
  • NZ building permits rose 5.3%m/m, but this just offset the prior month's -5.2% fall. Jobs filled rose 0.3%, showing tentative signs of improvement, albeit from quite a low base. In Australia, the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose 0.6%m/m from 0.2% and was 2.6% in y/y terms. This is back close to 2024 lows. ANZ job ads rose 0.3% for Dec, but the Nov fall was revised to -1.8%.
  • Equity sentiment in terms of US futures opened softer, but we are up from lows, last near flat. Regional equity markets are in the red, to varying degrees, following the weaker offshore lead on Friday. There are no US yield shifts given Japan is out today.
  • Commodity prices are up led by oil, following further sanctions on Russia from the US (announced on Friday). Brent and WTI are both up +2%. This is helping the likes of NOK see modest outperformance, up around 0.15%. This may also be aiding AUD and NZD at the margins.
  • Coming up we have China Dec trade figures on tap.   
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Early G10 FX trends are seeing some modest yen weakness against higher beta plays. The BBDXY USD index was last little changed, holding above 1319.1. 

  • Yen was an outperformer through Friday's session, so may be seeing some modest retracement in early Monday dealings. USD/JPY was last around 157.90, still well below post NFP highs from Friday at 158.87. Japan markets are out today, so liquidity will be lighter from that standpoint.
  • AUD and NZD are a touch higher. Both currencies are up around 0.10% versus the USD. AUD/USD was in the 0.6150/55 region, NZD at 0.5560/65. We have had data outcomes in both economies but these second tier prints haven't shifted FX sentiment.  
  • NZ building permits rose 5.3%m/m, but this just offset the prior month's -5.2% fall. Jobs filled rose 0.3%, showing tentative signs of improvement, albeit from quite a low base. In Australia, the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose 0.6%m/m from 0.2% and was 2.6% in y/y terms. This is back close to 2024 lows. ANZ job ads rose 0.3% for Dec, but the Nov fall was revised to -1.8%.
  • Equity sentiment in terms of US futures opened softer, but we are up from lows, last near flat. Regional equity markets are in the red, to varying degrees, following the weaker offshore lead on Friday. There are no US yield shifts given Japan is out today.
  • Commodity prices are up led by oil, following further sanctions on Russia from the US (announced on Friday). Brent and WTI are both up +2%. This is helping the likes of NOK see modest outperformance, up around 0.15%. This may also be aiding AUD and NZD at the margins.
  • Coming up we have China Dec trade figures on tap.