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USD Index Unchanged, NZD Remains atop G10 Leaderboard

FOREX
  • G10 currency ranges remained predictably contained on Monday, with the closure of US markets for President’s Day offsetting any potential impact from China markets returning after the LNY break. The dollar index is unchanged as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • NZDUSD has consolidated its modest outperformance overnight. The pair was last 0.6145, marginally above Friday highs and continue to operate above the 20 and 50-day EMAs of 0.6120/6135. Continued strength could see a test of the highs from Jan 31 at 0.6174. As noted earlier, local bank BNZ pushed back the timing of RBNZ cuts to November from August, as well as the services PMI rebounding to 52.1 in Jan, from 48.8 prior. With AUD lagging somewhat, AUDNZD has drifted back towards the notable 1.0600 pivot point.
  • For USDJPY, despite drifting lower in early session to 149.88 lows, the pair traded with a more supportive tone and stands closer to 150.20 as Monday’s holiday thinned session comes to a close. Speculation continues around the BoJ NIRP exit. The latest MNI policy insight is at this link, which looks at the chances of a shift at the March meeting.
  • Above here, 151.43, the November 16 high remains the focus, inching ever closer to the multi-decade highs at 151.95. Initial support moves up to 148.75, the 20-day EMA.
  • RBA minutes will be the highlight of Tuesday’s APAC docket before the focus turns to Canadian CPI for January.

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