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USD/JPY Back Above 142.00, Yen Underperforms Commodity FX

JPY

The yen remained the weakest performer in the G10 space for Monday's session. USD/JPY gained 0.79%, with CHF the next worst, -0.24%, while commodity FX outperformed. Post the Asia close we got to the ~142.70 level, before pulling back to 142.30 at the NY close. Dips back towards 142.00 were supported in the pair post the breach of this figure level.

  • In terms of technicals, the pair has breached a key short-term resistance at 141.96, the Jul 21 high. This has confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jul 14 and opens 142.98, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 26 low. First key support has been defined at 138.07, the Jul 28 low.
  • A Bloomberg survey conducted yesterday showed the majority of economists don't expect any major policy shifts for the remainder of 2023 (see this link for more details).
  • On the data front today we have the June jobless rate and job-to-applicant ratio, no change is expected in the jobless rate. The final July PMI print is also due.
  • Cross asset moves were muted in the yield space for Monday, with US yields closing little changed versus end Friday levels. Equities firmed a touch, while commodity indices were higher, particularly in the base metals space (+1.87%). Copper rose over 2%, which likely weighed on JPY against the likes of AUD.
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