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USD/JPY Holding Sub 148.00, Tokyo CPI, BoJ Mins Out Today

JPY

USD/JPY got to the low 147.00/10 region post the Asia close on Thursday before rebounding. We couldn't get back above 148.00 though, and track near 147.60 in early trade today. We were down marginally for the Thursday session in yen terms, but outperformed the EU bloc of currencies.

  • EUR/JPY slipped under 160.00 post the ECB, before support emerged. The possibility of the ECB turning more dovish in March weighed on the EUR and dominated sentiment in the G10 space through Thursday.
  • For USD/JPY, key short-term support has been defined at 144.36, the Jan 12 low. A break of this level is required to signal a top. Initial firm support lies at 145.93, the 50-day EMA. On the topside, 148.80, the Jan 19 high is a resistance point.
  • Focus today will be on the extent to which JGB yields correct lower, following the core yield move in Thursday trade post the ECB. A firmer JGB yield backdrop on BoJ speculation has bias US-JP yield differentials lower.
  • On the data front today we have Tokyo CPI for Jan as the main focus point. The headline is expected at 2.0% y/y (prior 2.4%), ex fresh food 1.9%y/y (prior 2.1%), while ex fresh food and energy is projected at 3.4% (prior 3.5%). Note as well the Dec BoJ minutes are out.
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