USD/JPY Rebounds From Pre-Fed Lows, But Remains Within Recent Ranges

USD/currently tracks just a touch below levels that prevailed this time yesterday, just above 140.00. We got to lows around 139.25/30 before pushing back above 140.00 in the aftermath of the Fed decision, which left rates on hold but delivered hawkish forward guidance. USD indices still finished Wednesday's session lower, with JPY underperforming, particularly against NZD.

• US yields were mixed, with gains at the front end, 2yr to 4.69% (highs near 4.80%), but the 10yr was down to 3.786% (~3bps), albeit with a degree of volatility through the Fed decision.
• USD/JPY remains within recent ranges. Technically, the trend condition is bullish and attention remains on key resistance at the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 16 low, which intersects at 141.35 today. A clear break of this hurdle would be bullish and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a strong reversal lower would instead highlight a potential top. Support is at 138.93, the 20-day EMA.
• Today's data calendar has May trade balance data, with exports expected to contract (-1.2%y/y forecast, prior +2.6%), but imports are projected weaker at -10.3%y/y. The trade position is expected to remain in deficit. Apr core machine orders are also out, along with weekly investment flow data. Later on the Apr tertiary activity index prints.