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Remains Vulnerable


Recent Highs Remain Intact


Holding Onto Gains


Bearish Risk


Attention Is On The 50-day EMA

DOLLAR-YEN: USD/JPY trades at Y108.07, virtually unchanged on the day.
- The rate round tripped from Y107.75 Monday, finishing 16 pips above Friday's
close. The initial downswing was likely inspired by broader caution as investors
assessed U.S. Tsy's partial denial of Friday's BBG report re: potential limits
on U.S. investments in China. Upside momentum emerged in Europe as risk appetite
picked up. A minor correction was seen as U.S. MNI Chicago PMI missed exp., but
general bullish tone remained intact, countering the earlier spell of weakness.
- The rate continues on its bounce off support from the 38.2% retracement of the
Aug 26-Sep 18 rally, touched on Sep 24 during a corrective pullback. Bears look
for a break above Y108.18, which capped gains over the last two sessions, before
targeting the Sep 18 high and bull trigger at Y108.48. Bears look for a fall
below the 100-DMA at Y107.80.
- The BoJ said Monday it would lower the range of its purchases of medium-,
long- and super long-term JGBs in October.
- Japanese data releases resume today with jobs numbers, Jibun Bank m'fing PMI
(f) and BoJ Tankan Survey. Later in the week, BoJ's Funo will speak on Thursday.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3806 |