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USD Off Overnight Lows, With Focus on Fed Speakers

FOREX
  • Having started the session on better footing, EUR is extending slippage off overnight highs, with EUR/USD's new daily low well in range of first support at the Monday pullback and cycle low of 1.0724 - clearance below here opens levels last seen in November last year.
  • Pick up in volumes evident on the decline, with more sizeable activity evident in futures on the leg lower from 1.0737 to 1.0726 (cash equivalent of ~$600mln traded on the move). Slippage in spot tilts prices away from the most sizeable option expiries of the day, and well away from the E2.5bln that was set to roll off at 1.08 at today's NY cut.
  • Moves not triggered by the ECB's CES, monpol pricing or that bumper German factory orders, shrugged off due to the presence of sizeable aircraft orders - and unlikely aided by a speech from ECB's de Cos, who confirmed expectations that the next likely move on rates will be a rate cut.
  • The USD Index is off the overnight lows, but a more solid bounce is lacking. Antipodean and commodity-tied currencies are instead favoured, helping AUD, CAD to outperform modestly early Tuesday.
  • Datapoints are few and far between Tuesday, with the Canadian Ivey PMI the sole release of note. As a result, more attention will likely be paid to the speaker slate - Fed's Mester, Kashkari and Collins are on the docket, as well as BoC governor Macklem - who speaks on the "effectiveness and the limitations of monetary policy".
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