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USD/PHP Breaks Above 50-DMA, Shows Little Reaction To GDP Data


Lingering risk aversion pushed spot USD/PHP above its 50-DMA in early Asia-Pac trade, while below-forecast Q4 GDP report has failed to provoke any meaningful reaction.

  • Philippine GDP shrank 8.3% Y/Y in Q4 (vs. consensus exp. of 7.9% decline), while in the course of 2020 the economy contracted 9.5% Y/Y, in line with forecasts and marking the worst slump on record.
  • Economic Planning Sec Chua attributed GDP contraction to the Covid-19 pandemic, but saw "green shoots of recovery". Chua noted that prospects for 2021 growth are encouraging and the economy could return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022.
  • BSP Gov Diokno said that the central bank is looking into alternative data that could inform policymaking, such as mobility data and text analysis of social media posts (as a gauge of sentiment).
  • The Philippines approved AstraZenaca's Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use, the jab is expected to be rolled out next quarter.
  • USD/PHP last sits at PHP48.12, slightly higher on the day, in close proximity to Jan 11 high of PHP48.13. A clean breach of that level would open up the 100-DMA at PHP48.29. Bears need a pullback under the 50-DMA at PHP48.10 before targeting the key PHP48.00 mark.
  • Focus moves to Markit M'fing PMI reading, due next Monday.

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