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USD/PHP Holding Above 56.00, BSP Seen On Hold This Week

PHP

USD/PHP sits near 56.11 in recent dealings, slightly weaker in PHP terms versus yesterday's closing levels. Recent dips in the pair sub 56.00 haven't been sustained, with early Nov lows around 55.78. Also note the 200-day EMA comes in at 55.95. On the topside, the 100-day EMA is near 56.27.

  • Whilst today's modest PHP weakness is out of line with slightly lower USD index levels, the firmer oil price backdrop is likely providing some offset. The two series have generally been positively correlated in recent months.
  • Elsewhere in the cross asset space, local equities have weakened a touch in recent sessions, but remain comfortably above late Oct/early Nov lows (last 6180). Offshore investors have been modest net sellers of local equities this month (-$12.4mn).
  • The main event risk this week is Thursday's BSP decision. The consensus is for no change, but some forecasters are penciling in a 25bps hike (current policy rate is 6.50%). Recent BSP rhetoric has been hawkish but Oct CPI data surprised on the downside.
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