USD/PHP Pares Earlier Gains, Q4 GDP/Dec Trade Out Tomorrow

USD/PHP spiked higher at the open, getting close to 54.78, but has drifted lower since. The pair was last around 54.62, still +0.30% above yesterday's closing level. The pair remains very much within recent ranges, with breaks sub 54.50 unable to be sustained in recent weeks, but moves up to 55.00 should still draw selling interest. Note the 20-day EMA comes in just above 55.00.

• Tomorrow delivers Dec trade figures, with export growth expected to ease to 8.8% (13.2% prior), but import growth is expected to record a deeper contraction at -5.8% (-1.9% prior), which will leave a slight improvement in the trade deficit -$3573mn, from -$3680mn according to the consensus.
• Q4 GDP prints as well, the consensus looks for a slowdown to 6.6% y/y from 7.6%, but Finance Secretary Diokno said at the start of the week that the economy likely grew more than 7.5% in Q4 from a year earlier.
• Philippines equities are up modestly so far today, +0.20%, with the index last near 7055, close to recent highs, but still consolidating after a strong start to the year.
• Offshore equity investors have been quiet this week, but flows for Jan remain positive at +$103mn.