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USD/PHP Remains Within Recent Ranges, Peso Tracking ~3.2% Weaker For August

PHP

USD/PHP is sticking to recent ranges in the first part of dealing today. The pair is back close to 56.70 (earlier lows were at 56.575), versus closing levels of 56.75 yesterday. The pair is above all key EMAs, with the 20-day closest on the downside near 56.31. Mid-August highs rest close to ~57.00, although in recent weeks we have capped out around 56.90.

  • PHP is tracking comfortably lower for August, down over 3%, with only KRW a worst performer in the region.
  • Outside of broader USD trends, the weaker local equity backdrop has also likely weighed on PHP. The PSEi is down 5.5% for August (-1% today, unwinding some of the earlier gains in the week), with weaker economic activity and signs of slowing bank lending headwinds.
  • Offshore investors remain sellers of local equities, with close to $100mn in outflows for August.
  • On the data front, the July budget balance was -47.8bn PHP, (prior -225.4bn), with a modestly improving trend, as revenues continue to recover.
  • Bank lending/money supply figures for June and July are due today/tomorrow. Tomorrow also sees the August PMI out, while next Tuesday delivers the August CPI.
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