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USD/PHP Consolidates, BSP Sounding More Hawkish

PHP

USD/PHP dipped in early trade but spot remains above 55.00 for now. Since late June the pair has consolidated around the 55.00 level. BSP rhetoric around rate hikes appears to have edged higher.

  • Today's Philippines CPI printed above market expectations for June, rising to 6.1% YoY, versus 6.0% expected and 5.4% previously. Gains were broad based, although transport prices spiked in the month (+2.7%, versus the aggregate headline of 0.9%)
  • In a Bloomberg TV interview, BSP Governor Medalla stated that if the MoM CPI momentum was too high the central bank would consider a 50bps hike in August. A 25bps hike in August is all but guaranteed. The Governor also stated rates could be as high as 3.50% by year end (versus 2.5% currently).
  • The BSP won't match Fed hikes but the Fed pace can't be totally ignored either.
  • The pass through from a weaker PHP is a 1% depreciation pushes up inflation by 0.05-0.1%. Note PHP has fallen more than 5% against the USD since the start of June.
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