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USD/PHP Steady, Defying Firmer USD/Asia Trends Elsewhere

PHP

Spot USD/PHP sits down a touch from earlier highs (55.56), last tracking near 55.48. This leaves us close to unchanged for the session. Since mid-November moves above 55.50 haven't been sustained in the pair. Note the 20-day EMA sits higher near 55.75. On the downside, the recent low rests at 55.28.

  • PHP has generally lagged the firmer trend seen elsewhere in EM Asia FX over the past week, but is defying firmer USD/Asia trends elsewhere. We are also well below the government's/BSP upper range at 57.00.
  • Earlier on the data front, the Nov PMI ticked higher to 52.7 from 52.4, continuing to suggest a reasonable domestic backdrop, albeit off 2022 highs.
  • Next Tuesday delivers Nov CPI data. The BSP expects a further easing from the prior 4.9%y/y outcome, stating late yesterday it has a range estimate of 4.0-4.8%. Note the consensus estimate is 4.3%.
  • Rice prices have rebounded though in the second half of November (see this BBG link), so this is likely to be a watch point for the BSP.
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