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USD Recoups Early Losses, But Recent Ranges Hold

FOREX

G10 FX trading has started the week in a fairly muted fashion. The BBDXY sits a touch below end Friday levels, last near 1241.85. We sit above earlier lows near 1240.8).

  • In the cross asset space, US equity futures sit mixed, after posting strong cash gains in Friday trade. US yields opened higher and have generally held gains as the session has progressed. The front end has led, up nearly 2bps, but this is unwinding only a small part of Friday's fall.
  • USD/JPY was weaker in the first part of trade, but dips sub 150.00 were supported. We were last near 150.25/30, which is at session highs. We had much stronger than expected Q4 capex data earlier, which should lead to positive GDP revisions for the quarter, but this didn't shift yen sentiment.
  • AUD and NZD also sit lower, unable to hold earlier gains. AUD/USD was last near 0.6520. Earlier data was on balance weaker than expected, with potential downside risks for Q4's GDP print (due Wed) after an inventory drag. Iron ore prices unable to find upside traction has likely been another headwind. Still, we sit comfortably above pre US data levels from Friday around 0.6490.
  • NZD/USD has tracked a similar range, last near 0.6095, off nearly 0.20% for the session. AUD/NZD touched initial resistance of 1.0700, but has been unable to break back above yet, a break here could open a further move to 1.0740 (Feb 7 highs). In the options space, US$420.5m Puts with a Strike of 1.0700 expire at the NY cut today.
  • Later the Fed’s Harker speaks but there is no data of note.

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