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USD/RUB: DarkSide Cyber-Attack Risks More US Confrontation

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB pares an early breakout gap lower towards 73.50, returning to last week's close around 73.70, supported by firmer oil markets this morning.
  • Friday's softer than expected CPI print at 5.5% vs 5.6% expected saw the cross pause at 73.50 as projections for a cyclical peak in inflation gained some traction
  • Potentially limiting the need for further aggressive hikes in the 50+ bp range, should this momentum follow through to May numbers.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have compressed 8.5bp since Friday, holding at 71.5bp.
  • However, given the CBR's cautious stance, we may need to see a more comprehensive dip in both CPI and expectations to see an easing of its firmly hawkish stance.
  • Oil markets notched higher following a major cyber attack that forced the shutdown of critical fuel supplies in the US, highlighting vulnerabilities in its infrastructure.
  • While this may support oil futures in the near-term, the tail risk of a more confrontation with the US is a risk to recent RUB optimism with the US linking the DarkSide hacking group to Russia.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.5287, Sup2: 73,4212, Sup3: 72.9534, Res1: 73.9706, Res2: 74.1981
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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