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USD/RUB Drifts Below 76.00 as Markets Await Belarus' Major Military Drills

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.20% lower this morning, hovering around the open as bullish momentum in brent eases slightly.
  • Geopolitical tensions remain high with major military drills in Belarus from 10-20 Feb, while the US warns an attack on Ukraine could come at any moment.
  • Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Zelensky continues to try to soften global panic, saying a diplomatic solution is more likely. Markets are still waiting for Russia’s response to US/NATO counter proposals, which will determine the trajectory of the next phase of the crisis.
  • Beyond that, we will look to see if Russia honours its pledge to remove troops from Belarus after the drills – which could mark an important pivot point for de-escalation or a notable pick-up in military tensions.
  • CPI data is set to rise to 8.83% y/y in Jan, reinforcing the need for more CBR tightening as proinflationary drivers remain dominant, although expectations have moderated slightly to 13.7% vs 14.8% in Dec.
  • On the international front, US CPI will be the big-ticket item for global markets this week.
  • Intraday Sup1: 75.5827, Sup2: 75.148, Res1: 76.2144, Res2: 76.537
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime Spread


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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