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USD/RUB Fails to Breach 74.00, Ukraine Talks Facing Headwinds

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens higher in line with an early bid in the greenback and weakness in oil markets after a strong session yesterday.
  • Energy analyst warns that the post-covid recovery is still uneven and a surge in cases in India is a timely reminder that any rally to $70 is premature and should only be seen in 3Q.
  • However, sell-side forecasts (GS in particular) continue to be bullish on the commodity super cycle with +13% in upside seen over the next 6-months (Brent target $80).
  • Ukraine tensions continue to simmer and see little progress towards peace agreements with Zelensky bucking the Minsk agreements.
  • Health Officials warning against the risk of a third wave of infections is also something to consider, but will need to escalate further before harsher restrictions are brought in.
  • Spot USD/RUB is trading marginally above the 100dma at 74.6996, but is capped by considerable resistance around the 75.00 handle.
  • Intraday Sup1: 75.5421, Sup2: 74.3885, Res1: 74.8246, Res2: 74.9861
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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