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USD/RUB Holds its Lateral Range, Brushing Off Increased Chances of Technical Default

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB BGN trades -1.11% lower this morning, still holding within its lateral range established on 13 May.
  • Oil is seeing a slight bid this morning, retracing a portion of yesterday’s -2.52% decline to stand just above the $110 mark.
  • The cross showed little reaction to the elevated probability of technical default (90%) caused by the US blockages to transactions, although the decision not to roll over Russia’s debt payment license (expires 25 May) has not been 100% confirmed (but is mostly expected).
  • The primary drivers seem to be more trade and transaction-based with current account dynamics being key to RUB directionality.
  • Weekly CPI printed even softer yesterday on RUB strength, reflecting a shift in the balance of risks that should facilitate additional CBR easing in the coming months to soften recessionary pressures on the economy.
  • Croatia has thrown an additional spanner into Nordic NATO proceedings, asking for concessions from Bosnia before approving their accession. Turkey has also remained resolute thus far in holding off the process.
  • However, it seems likely that once these have been addressed that they will be admitted. On the battlefield, Ukrainian officials are showing little interest in dialogue and have upped the rhetoric aimed at driving Russia out completely – suggesting we may be in for a protracted regional conflict.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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