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USD/RUB Opens Higher as Risk-Off, Oil Weakness Weigh

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens +0.28% higher this morning, broadly in line with weaker global risk sentiment and softer oil prices.
  • Early strength in Brent on was pared as risk-off and concerns of slowing global fuel demand overshadowed optimism that OPEC+ would hold back on providing more supply in the coming months – following comments from four OPEC sources.
  • Brent is currently looking vulnerable below the $70/bbl mark, but the real concern will set in if futures slip below the July 20 low at 66.91, opening up scope for a deeper pullback that will undoubtedly weigh on RUB. USD/RUB failed to move below Friday's close in yesterday's session, slowing the recent downside momentum.
  • Choppy risk conditions around the FOMC minutes, question marks about china's economic activity and Afghanistan security concerns will likely keep EMFX and commodity currencies volatile this week.
  • Price action will need to move below the 50dma at 73.3435 before targeting the 02 Aug lows at 72.6566.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.2181, Sup2: 73.00, Res1: 73.5342, Res2: 73.7458

  • Brent 17.08


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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