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USD/RUB Rises +4%, Breaching 77.00 as Geopolitics & Global Risk-Off Take a Toll

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades +0.31% higher this morning, continuing its slow grind higher with local markets still on holiday and uncertainty over weekend US-Russia talks building.
  • The cross has risen +3.93% this week towards 77.00, ranking among the worst EM performers globally.
  • The move is somewhat surprising, given firmer oil markets and limited changes in the Ukraine crisis/geopolitical tensions with the West – but speaks to high uncertainty and broad risk aversion in global markets right now.
  • Expectations for the weekend meeting are likely to see some improvements in terms of dialogue, but not a huge amount of progress on de-escalation unless both sides agree to make some concessions – which seems hard to imagine at this point.
  • RUB weakness should also add weigh to expectations for another Feb hike, with passthrough via the FX channel a major concern for the CBR.
  • Intraday Sup1: 76.2144, Sup2: 75.5636, Res1: 77.3381, Res2: 77.7370
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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