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USD/RUB Teeters Around 71.00, Key Resistance May Cap Further Gains

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades +0.15% higher this morning, tracking early upside in the BBDXY and tentative weakness in oil markets with brent -0.14% lower.
  • The cross rose +1.00% on Friday with profit-taking, a firmer USD and choppy oil markets keeping the cross biased higher.
  • Markit PMI data notched higher this morning, printing at 51.6 vs 50.5 prior with services PMIs due tomorrow.
  • CPI data will be the primary focus as the CBR remains under pressure with inflationary pressures spiralling to the degree that Putin felt the need to call on G20 nations to expedite normalisation to curtail global price appreciation.
  • Beyond local data, we have a swathe of US data and the FOMC on Wednesday where more details are expected on taper lift-off, and the discussion on inflation dynamics will be watched closely.
  • USD/RUB has pulled back +2.76% from the 26 Oct lows, and may start to get a bit sticker from here to the topside with expectations for a tight response from the CBR into year-end likely to keep RUB supported.
  • 71.2384 represents the 50% fib of the 01 – 26 Oct range, with 71.557 the next notable resistance above that level.
  • Intraday Sup1: 70.7527, Sup2: 70.4623, Res1: 71.2384, Res2: 71.557

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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