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USD Sits Softer as German Regional CPIs Send Mixed Messages

FOREX
  • The greenback is softer headed through to the NY crossover, with the USD Index holding close to mid-March lows. German regional CPI data has been in focus, sending mixed signals over the sustainability of the decline in headline inflation.
  • The weaker USD backdrop and softer EUR post-CPI data has helped GBP find favour in early trade, keeping GBP/USD within range of 1.2362 - the highest print since early Feb. Little options interest near current levels into month-end (nearest notable expiry rolls off tomorrow at 1.2100), but more significant interest next week noted at 1.2250, with $1.1bln rolling off on Apr04, which could anchor any near-term rally.
  • CHF is the furtive outperformer, snapping weakness seen earlier in the week. The currency's safe haven status remains surpressed for now, with stronger equities doing little to pin back the currency.
  • Focus turns to the confirmation for preliminary German CPI for March, as well as the weekly US jobless claims. Tertiary Q4 GDP from the US is unlikely to move the needle, but Fed speakers will be eyed. Fed's Barkin, Collins and Kashkari are on the docket just after the London close.
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