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USD/THB Just Off Multi Month Highs, Baht Remains Weakest Performer In EM Asia FX

THB

USD/THB sits below earlier highs, last close to 36.13. Earlier we got to 36.18, which was fresh highs back to early Nov last year (Nov 1 high was 36.335). The pair is comfortably above all key EMAs, the rising 20-day last near 35.65.

  • Baht remains an underperformer within the EM Asia FX space, off 5.5% year to date, with MYR the next worst at --3.9%.
  • Local asset trends in terms of sideways equities price action are not helping THB. Portfolio flows are negative this week for equities (-$78.5mn) and just positive for Feb to date. Bond outflows have been more prominent (-$551.8mn). A
  • Lack of confidence in the economic outlook will be a factor. Note that Q4 GDP prints early next week and is likely to be eyed closely by the BoT for risks around the policy outlook.
  • Note that PM Srettha chairs a meeting on the digital wallet later today at 4pm local time.
  • At the margin, lower gold prices will also likely be weighing at the margin. Directional correlations between baht and gold remains firm.
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