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USD/TRY Approaches its All-Time High as CBRT Interventions Prove Ineffective

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +1.41% higher this morning, rising back above the CBRT’s prior intervention levels on Monday at 14.50 as the FOMC & CBRT draw nearer.
  • Today’s focus will undoubtedly be on the FOMC, with the USD going into the meeting firm on expectations for a more hawkish approach from the Fed following November’s lofty inflation print.
  • This should dominate price action today, followed by the CBRT meeting tomorrow where markets are expecting another 100bp rate cut from Erdogan to 14%, despite looming inflation risks and broad lira depreciation.
  • Potential CBRT intervention will be eyed throughout today’s session should the cross continue to drift higher into tomorrow’s meeting with the CBRT showing its willingness to burn ~$2bn/day on Monday’s.
  • Signs of an additional budget and calls to widen the deficit are also factors to consider as Turkey’s fiscal prudence remains one of its saving graces for ratings agencies.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.3714, Sup2: 14.1811, Sup3: 13.9542, Res1: 14,759, Res2: 14.97, Res3: 15.21
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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