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USD/TRY Breaches 8.50 on Post CBRT Optimism, Afghan Refugee Flows a Concern to Monitor

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.19% higher this morning, relatively less affected by early BBDXY strength than ZAR as TRY continues to trade mostly on idiosyncratic factors.
  • The cross moved below the 8.50 handle yesterday as markets remained pleased by the CBRT's unwillingness to bow to Erdogan pressure at the prior meeting.
  • Concerns are mounting, however, in terms of escalating Afghan migrant flows to Turkey, with experts warning about insufficient means to deal with the influx and possible socio-political issues that have been proven to come with extensive diaspora (terrorism, cross-border weapons flow & sicknesses).
  • Erdogan has said that he will not leave the floodgates open, but will accommodate some refugees – on condition that the EU honours the remaining EUR3bn of the EUR6bn Migrant Deal.
  • While the Taliban has said it views Turkey as a brother state, it has said Turkey's presence at the Kabul airport alongside the US is one of its red lines and could see frictions , despite the Taliban remaining mostly amiable in its early communications.
  • This, alongside the scale of migrant flows, and domestic reaction to them will be key to monitor going forward.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.4533, Sup2: 8.4021, Res1: 8.524, Res2: 8.5516
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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