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Rupee Gains Ahead Of RBI Decision


Japanese MOF sells Y4.54002tn 3-Month Bills:

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  • USD/TRY came unstuck in yesterday's session, making a new all-time high following a bout of USD strength.
  • Spot has pulled back below the 8.50 handle this morning, but may see upside pressure and dip buying persist in the coming sessions as weak TRY sentiment and a lack of positive catalysts continue to weigh.
  • Economists have speculated that state banks and the CBRT may become active in slowing any aggressive TRY depreciation above 8.50 – which is a tail risk worth monitoring.
  • Discovery of oil wells is a net positive for the current account deficit, but is not enough to markedly reduce fuel imports.
  • Having made a new high, the risk of a more meaningful move higher towards 9.00 has increased with many institutions estimating USD/TRY fair value in the 9-9.50 range.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.4851, Sup2: 8,4397, Res1: 8.5439
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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