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- USD/TRY seen drifting higher at the open in line with EM high-beta and a slightly firmer Greenback.
- Yesterday's consolidated move lower towards the 100dma may see some slight profit taking into today's session, but bias remains to the downside ahead of next week's CBRT.
- 7.7456 - 7.7627 should act as a short-term resistance band with the 50% & 61.8% fibs holding within this range.
- CBRT expectations report will be a key source of volatility today.
- Monitoring tone on inflation expectations regarding November's spike to the 14% mark and possible posturing towards a 1w repo hike next week.
- Dialogue should be more positive on exchange rate.
- CBRT should continue to tread lightly and say more of the right things RE policy orthodoxy & price stability, which have been working wonders in recent weeks.
- Close below 100dma in the coming sessions (may not come today) opens up Nov 16 low at 7.6156 and 7.5343 in the near-term.