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TURKISH LIRA: USD/TRY eked out fresh multi-month highs again Tuesday, with
markedly underperforming the rest of EMFX despite the weakness of the greenback
so far today. USD/TRY price action so far today topped out at 5.9849, with
resistance eyed at the October highs of 6.2282 and 6.1853, the 50% retracement
of the fall from 7.2362 - 5.1344. USD/TRY bulls also eye the potential formation
of a golden cross, with the 50-dma at 5.5729 nearing in on the 200-dma at
-The moves today come despite comments from the Turkish central bank earlier
today who signalled that while they have softened their stance on policy in the
face of high inflation, the bank could return to another round of monetary
tightening. This rhetoric was countered by the bank's failure to explain recent
FX reserves numbers that were investigated by the Financial Times a few weeks
ago and found the numbers to be inflated by swaps arrangements with local banks.
The Turkish central bank kept inflation forecasts for this year and the next
unchanged, forecasting 14.6% in 2019 and 8.2% in 2020, well below what's
currently expected at this Friday's release: 20.31% for the Y/Y figure.