MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Let Powell Serve Full Term-Moore

MNI BRIEF: Canada Household Debt Tops $3 Trillion In 3Q

MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Allow Powell To Serve Term - Moore

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Stabilising Housing Market - CEWC

MNI BRIEF: China Focus On Boosting Consumption In 2025

MNI BRIEF: China To Cut Rates, Boost Borrowing-Work Conference

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -190 BCF TO 3,747 BCF DEC 06 WK

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS +17K TO 242K IN DEC 07 WK

MNI: US NOV FINAL DEMAND PPI +0.4%, EX FOOD, ENERGY +0.2%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

USD/TRY Fails to Breach 8.00 After Market Interprets CBRT Statement as Slightly Dovish

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY open higher this morning in line with a choppy Greenback.
  • Yesterday's CBRT printed mostly in line with expectations, with market leaning more on the dovish side in its interpretation of Kavcioglu's statement surrounding the largely expected hold at 19%.
  • Key statements were the removal of guidance towards further tightening (dovish), the pledge to keep rates above inflation (relatively hawkish) but no signal of any easing to come (relatively hawkish).
  • With inflation poised to rise to a cyclical peak of 18-19% in 2021, this could imply a protracted period of holding for the CBRT – counter to Erdogan's wishes for a cut cycle targeting single-digit rates.
  • Overall, when you consider Kavcioglu's installation has been purely predicated on bringing rates lower, the outcome becomes relatively more hawkish – given how dovish it could have been.
  • USD/TRY pared the early post-meeting move higher on the back of a softer Greenback before stabilising above 8.00 once more.
  • The meeting would have gone exactly how CBRT would have liked – delivering a relative market stabiliser and seeing no major TRY sell-off.
  • We'll have to monitor comms from both Erdogan and the CBRT in coming months closely for signs of premature easing, which will be largely priced into TRY assets due to the CBRT's credibility deficit.
  • With volatility dissipating and bonds seeing flows tentatively returning, we may see TRY pressure the 8.00 handle in coming sessions but may be capped to the downside around 7.87-7.75.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.0236, Sup2: 7.9332, Res1: 8.1135, Res2: 8.1793
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.