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USD/TRY Falls on Improved Global Risk Sentiment & FX-Linked Deposit Tweaks

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.41% higher this morning, trimming some of yesterday’s move lower following weekend tweaks to policy.
  • TRY firmed on the back of a new income tax break for companies that convert their assets into TRY, although the program itself amplifies pre-existing fiscal risks to the FX-linked deposit scheme in the event of a return to TRY volatility.
  • As expected, Govt is pushing ahead with non-standard policy tweaks over rate hikes to deliver TRY stability in line with the CBRT’s new mandate for currency stability.
  • The cross tested the lower threshold of its lateral range between 13.2905-13.682 and may look to test the 12 Jan lows around 13.1653 if price action moves through yesterday’s lows on sustained risk-on.
  • CPI remains the primary focus for the week with analysts expecting a rise to 48.00% y/y vs 36.08% prior, although some have voiced concern over data credibility following the dismissal of the TUIK head.
  • US ISM data will be eyed today, with markets expecting a moderate decline to 57,5 vs 58.7 prior.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.2905, Sup2: 13.1653, Res1: 14.4262, Res2: 13.5087
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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