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USD/TRY Hovers Below 8.50 as Firmer Global Risk Sentiment Filters Through from APAC

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades mostly flat this morning, broadly ignoring early selling pressure on the BBDXY with the sell-side noting light foreign positioning in TRY at the moment – with moves being driven mostly by locals post-CBRT.
  • With a light data schedule for the week, the domestic focus remains on the impending refugee crisis heading for Turkey as a result of the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.
  • Erdogan has now joined the chorus of Turkish citizens and opposition parties, saying Turkey cannot withstand any more migrants with its refugee population looking to rise above 7%.
  • Erdogan will need to balance improving ties with the West with risks of socio-economic & political discontent at home in managing the crisis. Beyond refugee flows, the covid situation seems to be deteriorating as ICU occupancy rises to 70% in Istanbul.
  • On the international front, Markets will eye the virtual Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week for more clues on the Fed's taper timelines – which could see more volatility injected into EM FX this week.
  • USD/TRY hovers around 8.50, and should move alongside global risk sentiment this week – but may be less vulnerable than the likes of ZAR to wild swings in risk-on/off, given light positioning.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.4533, Sup2: 8.4262, Res1: 8.524, Res2: 8.5516
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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