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USD/TRY Probes 15.50 as Current Acc Data Provides a Reminder of Stark Trade/Policy Imbalances

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.12% higher this morning, probing 15.50 with early risk sentiment faltering slightly.
  • Current account data came in slightly better than expected, but continues to reflect the widening gap between imports and exports as a result of the Ukraine crisis.
  • This gap should continue to exert pressure on TRY in the medium-term with the CBRT unwilling to address policy imbalances.
  • Over the weekend, Turkey continued its strategic bargaining amid the Ukraine crisis, seeking security guarantees from Sweden & Finland in exchange for supporting their NATO bid.
  • This is the delicate balance Turkey continues to walk between Russia and the West, which has so far been largely beneficial for Turkey during the crisis.
  • USD/TRY should continue to grind higher over the medium-term with the CBRT’s constrained reserves position providing little buffer against the growing headwinds. Intraday Sup1: 15.4541, Sup2: 15.3883, Res1: 15.56, 15.61
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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