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USD/TRY Retests 14.50 as Lira Headwinds Intensify

  • USD/TRY trades +0.78% higher this morning as the cross continues to grind higher on sustained risk-off in global markets.
  • TRY remains among the most vulnerable to the crisis with inflation set to peak in the 60-65% range in the coming months and drag real yields towards -56-61%.
  • Risks to a notably weaker tourism season also provide additional pressures to current account dynamics, making for an unfavourable cocktail for the currency.
  • Global risk-off should continue to dominate price action in USD/TRY as upside persists in the greenback.
  • The CBRT was suspected to have intervened heavily around 14.50-14.6462 on 24 Feb and may be active around these levels again – although with limited firepower, such interventions will not be able to continue indefinitely and the CBRT will either be forced to hikes rates or let the currency devalue.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.3813, Sup2: 14.3087, Res1: 14.5619, Res2: 14.6462
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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