USD/TWD Falters, But Remains Above Key EMAs, Trade Figures Due Later

USD/TWD has weakened in the first part of Wednesday trade. Spot is back to 32.00, a TWD gain of around 0.35% so far (earlier lows were around 31.95). Recent highs in the pair rest at 32.12. Over the past month we have risen from the low 31.40 region, with dips supported. The 20-day EMA sits back near 31.89. We have been above all key EMAs since mid March. The 1 month NDF is also sub 32.00.

• Today's pull back may reflect some position squaring ahead of the upcoming US CPI release (per BBG). Yesterday net equity inflows from offshore investors were quite strong, +$551mn, although April to date is still running at a negative in terms of this investor segment.
• Late yesterday we got slightly weaker than expected CPI for March, with headline and core easing back to close to 2.0%, after recent prints near 3.0%. This should temper hawkish CBC intensions at the margin, although this hasn't been a key driver of TWD in recent months.
• Coming up later we have March trade figures. The market looks for an improved trend to 7.5% for export growth. This would fit with a generally improving export growth backdrop, although the most recent export orders print fell back into negative territory.