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USD Weakness Not Uniform


USD/Asia pairs are mostly lower, although not in a uniform fashion. CNH has been a laggard, as have INR and IDR. KRW, MYR, THB and MYR have led the gains. Still to come is the BoT decision (+25bps expected) and Indian Q3 GDP. Tomorrow the focus will be on the China Caixin PMI, South Korean November trade data and a host of PMI readings for the region. Indonesia CPI also prints.

  • USD/CNH popped above 7.1600 after the PMI prints disappointed, but this level found selling interest. On the downside moves sub 7.1400 were supported. The USD/CNY fix was close to neutral. We were last close to 7.1500.
  • USD/KRW has shrugged off poor domestic news around data and on-going trucker/rail staff strikes. The pair has fallen to 1315, fresh lows back to mid-November. Onshore equities are higher by over 1%.
  • USD/INR is back to 81.60/65, but lagging broader USD moves. The pair remains within recent ranges, while Q3 GDP, due later, is expected to show noticeably. A good proportion of this reflects base effects though.
  • USD/IDR is holding steady around 15740. This comes despite reported intervention by the authorities. There was a number of comments by officials, with President Jokowi's comments generally painting a tougher macro picture in 2023, while the current account position is expected to worsen.
  • USD/THB is lower, close to the simple 200-day MA (35.28, versus 35.33 for spot currently). We haven’t been below this support level since March of this year. The BoT is widely expected to hike rates by 25bps later today.

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