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Free AccessUSD/ZAR Eyes CPI >5%, SARB Focused on Medium-Term Factors
- USD/ZAR trades mostly flat to lower around the open, tracking BBDXY price action. The cross closed yesterday's session marginally higher, stalling out at 14.40 resistance as Fed Chair Powell reassured markets that rates would not rise too rapidly – resulting in a softer dollar into the back end of yesterday's session.
- Ramaphosa's Port Authority reforms did little to inspire ZAR optimism amid a shift in sentiment regarding the deteriorating covid situation – but represents yet another step in the right direction towards a reform-focused ANC.
- Focus today will be on CPI, expected to print at 5.1-5.2% y/y vs 4.4% prior mostly due to base effects.
- While this print goes above the 4.5% midpoint of the SARB's range, this has been largely factored into the bank's reaction function and is expected to dissipate below the midpoint and remain there into 2022.
- The SARB has reiterated its focus on medium-term factors and committed to keeping policy accommodative to support the recovery.
- A print above 5.2% may spark a moderately hawkish reaction depending on the magnitude of the surprise, while a downside print may support some buying pressure in SAGBs on wider real yields.
- Intraday Sup1: 14.1536, Sup2: 14.0768, Res1: 14.2777, Res2: 14.3833
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.