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USD/ZAR Eyes CPI >5%, SARB Focused on Medium-Term Factors

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades mostly flat to lower around the open, tracking BBDXY price action. The cross closed yesterday's session marginally higher, stalling out at 14.40 resistance as Fed Chair Powell reassured markets that rates would not rise too rapidly – resulting in a softer dollar into the back end of yesterday's session.
  • Ramaphosa's Port Authority reforms did little to inspire ZAR optimism amid a shift in sentiment regarding the deteriorating covid situation – but represents yet another step in the right direction towards a reform-focused ANC.
  • Focus today will be on CPI, expected to print at 5.1-5.2% y/y vs 4.4% prior mostly due to base effects.
  • While this print goes above the 4.5% midpoint of the SARB's range, this has been largely factored into the bank's reaction function and is expected to dissipate below the midpoint and remain there into 2022.
  • The SARB has reiterated its focus on medium-term factors and committed to keeping policy accommodative to support the recovery.
  • A print above 5.2% may spark a moderately hawkish reaction depending on the magnitude of the surprise, while a downside print may support some buying pressure in SAGBs on wider real yields.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.1536, Sup2: 14.0768, Res1: 14.2777, Res2: 14.3833
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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