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USD/ZAR Fluctuates as Commodity Prices, Risk Sentiment Remain Volatile

  • USD/ZAR trades -0.54% lower this morning, having held below the 15.50 level and its 100 & 50dmas in yesterday’s session.
  • The cross remains at a key pivot point with price action pressing these MAs from the downside as risk sentiment and commodity prices fluctuate around the Ukraine situation.
  • SA’s status as a net importer of oil makes it vulnerable to inflation risks from higher energy prices with 9x12 FRA-Jiba3m spreads widening to +165bp from the Feb lows at +135bp as markets anticipate upside pressure on SARB forecasts.
  • The ConCourt’s decision to cancel the 2018 wage agreement is a R38bn gain for the Treasury, but unions say they will fight hard in March’s wage negotiations with the Treasury having only allocated 1.8% over the next three years for wage increases.
  • USD/ZAR is currently rangebound within the 15.1431-15.5230 zone, awaiting a breakout in either direction to confirm a more decisive neat-term direction.
  • Intraday Sup1: 15.2633, Sup2: 15.2155, Sup3: 15.143, Res1: 15.3663, Res2: 15.4902
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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