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USD/ZAR Holds Below 13.50, Cabinet Reshuffle Murmurs Re-Emerge

  • USD/ZAR trades slightly higher at the open, broadly in line with some early USD strength.
  • Price action remains below 13.50 after the US NFP miss sparked a bout of risk-on.
  • Domestic focus this week remains on public sector wage talks, which continue to edge towards national strikes as govt holds firm on its 1.5% offer.
  • Murmurings of Cabinet reshuffles starting to re-emerge after going quiet in May, most likely brought back by recent allegations against HealthMin Mkhize.
  • A Cabinet reshuffle would really cement Ramaphosa's grip on power in the party amid extensive factional infighting.
  • Eskom Load-shedding risks remain acute and escalating, despite Eskom's improved debt situation.
  • Unplanned breakdowns reman high and the risk of moving to more severe outages in the stage 4-5 zone would be a major drag on the recovery.
  • Domestically we have a raft of data this week, including GDP which is expected to be strong, given higher commodity prices.
  • Current Acc & mining data is also due at the end of the week alongside US CPI.
  • The cross is now back in oversold territory on the RSI and well beyond fair value at 14.00-14.50, but continues to gains downside momentum in bouts of risk-on.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.3941, Sup2: 13.2406, Res1: 13.5111, Res2: 13.6780
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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