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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SOUTH AFRICA
- USD/ZAR trades -0.49% lower this morning, tracking early selling pressure on the BBDXY.
- The cross traded choppily around the FOMC statement and Powell's presser to end -0.31% lower on the day with sellers emerging at the 61.8% Fib (14.88) yet again.
- Guidance towards a taper "soon" was interpreted as likely to start in November, while the median 2022 dots shifted in favour of an earlier than expected lift off next year over early 2023.
- Expect price action to remain choppy as markets continue to digest last night's events with ZAR's high-beta nature making it vulnerable to sharp shifts in sentiment.
- Focus today will be on the SARB meeting, but with the hold decision being largely priced in, attention will be on the SARB's assessment of GDP post-rebasing and discussion of the narrower 3-4% inflation target.
- While Aug inflation printed higher at 4.9% y/y this should not shift the SARB's accommodative stance, but makes the October/November CPI prints critical in terms of room to keep policy easy.
- We stick with our base case of unchanged rates to 1Q22, however, with the possibility of extension out to end-2022 – should notably higher inflation fail to materialise.
- Intraday Sup1: 14.6978, Sup2: 14.6072, Sup3: 14.5362, Res1: 14.7955, Res2: 14.88
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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