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USD/ZAR Rises on Weak China Data, CPI & FOMC Minutes in Focus

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades +0.23% firmer this morning, broadly in line with a firmer BBDXY and choppy CNH following weaker than expected economic activity data.
  • ZAR traded in a volatile sideways range around its 200dma and 14.90 resistance last week as mixed risk conditions kept EM high-beta FX on its toes.
  • The cross ended +0.78% for the week, but continues to see fading interest on moves towards 14.90-15.00.
  • Domestic focus for this week will be on the escalating covid situation as the Western Cape and KZN continue to see cases rise – however, no restriction changes appear to be in the pipeline for now.
  • On the data front, we see mining production data today, followed by CPI on Wednesday alongside the FOMC minutes.
  • Some Sell-side analysts have noted risks to a downside surprise in CPI this week that should help bolster demand for SAGBs & ZAR on widening real yields/carry differentials, provided global risk conditions remain supportive.
  • ZAR continues to be one of the most affected by shifts in risk-on/off, owing to robust fundamentals but shaky sentiment following rioting and a cabinet reshuffle.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.6577, Sup2: 14.5753, Res1: 14.8632, Res2: 14.9559
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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