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USDCAD Firms Further Ahead Of Fed/BOC Commentary

CANADA
  • USDCAD has continued to rise off earlier lows from the snap reaction to CPI (1.2664) to around the 1.27 mark, leaving it down -0.15% on the day and very similar to BBDXY despite oil up strongly.
  • Recent comments by the Fed’s Harker being in the 25bp rather than 50bp camp for March made little impact, before popping higher on the announcement of an upcoming NATO press conference.
  • Technicals: Whilst towards the low end of the range seen since the BoC/FOMC decisions on Jan 26, it holds above support at 1.2636 (Feb 10 low), with a positive outlook whilst this remains intact.
  • Long-term: Little steer from the historical Canadian real effective exchange rate, which is very close to its five year average in JPM’s daily index as of yesterday.

JPMorgan CPI-based Real Effective Exchange RateSource: Bloomberg

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