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USDCAD Keeps To Friday's ISM-Inspired Range, BoC On Wed

CANADA
  • USDCAD has drifter higher to ~1.358, buoyed by WTI pushing lower amidst a particularly narrow session for equity futures, but remains comfortably below Friday’s pre-ISM mfg high of 1.3602.
  • That in turn stopped short of latest resistance at 1.3606 (Feb 28 high), having pulled back as it struggles for fresh direction after clearing a bull trigger at 1.3586 last week.
  • Ahead of Wednesday’s BoC decision, the pair sits 0.9% higher than in the run up to the Jan 24 decision, with a similar magnitude for CAD depreciation on a real trade weighted basis.
  • It pushes real effective CAD to 2-2.5% lower than 5- and 10-year rolling averages. Over a long enough period that could imply some CAD appreciation risk although if CFTC futures data are indicative of broader trends, CAD positioning has shifted very close to neutral with net shorts at 0.8% of OI as of Feb 27.

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